Author: Michele Wucker

What happened to all of those top-risks lists analysts made at the beginning of the year? Are the same things still keeping investors, businesses, policy makers, and citizens up at night? This Spring, I compiled and analyzed top risks and predictions for 2019 in the fourth annual “Top Gray Rhinos” meta-list. As in past years, it’s worth checking in to see if those obvious and talked about “gray rhino” risks have been handled or ignored. This year’s top risks are US-China Tensions; Economic and Financial Fragilities; Geopolitical Uncertainty; Cyber Security and Data Integrity; and Climate Change, Extreme Weather, and National…

I got a call on my cell phone yesterday that Caller ID said was one of the banks where I have an account. However, the Mr. Number app I use to screen and block spam calls identified it as “Scam Likely,” so I let it go to voicemail, as I do with any number I don’t recognize. That’s when things got scary. Usually, I don’t bother checking voicemail (who calls people without an appointment these days anyway?), but the call had me concerned, so I did check this one. I’m glad I did. The message, left in a soft voice with an…

Amanda Mull’s recent article in The Atlantic, “There Are Two Types of Airport People,” got me thinking about these two distinct species. You know, the ones who get there meticulously early and the ones who make sport of seeing just how close they can cut it. Given the amount of time I spend thinking, writing, and speaking about risk, the gap between these two types of people fascinates me. I used to be much more of a cut-it-close person until the time I decided to try taking the M60 bus from Manhattan’s Upper West Side to save a few bucks…

Over the past year, more than half of UK consumers reported using less plastic in a phenomenon dubbed the “Attenborough effect” after Sir Richard Attenborough’s initiatives to raise awareness of plastic pollution. During Lent, my Facebook feed was full of posts by friends giving up single-use plastic –which brought a barrage of ads for multiple-use produce bags and beeswax wrappers. The attention to plastic waste has been followed, sadly and predictably, with a barrage of news coverage disparaging people’s efforts to reduce it. These articles mimic others suggesting it’s pointless to take small steps to reduce greenhouse gas emissions –…

Back from a week across the pond for a speech applying gray rhino theory to climate change at a risk conference in Brussels organized by the Flemish government, I’ve been considering whether we are at a tipping point that can speed progress in pulling our planet back from the brink. The number and intensity of warnings seems to be increasing, in the form of high-profile reports and an increase in protests from both student and general citizen protests. After Brussels, I spent a few days in the UK, where the Extinction Rebellion “XR” protests not only snarled London traffic but ultimately succeeded…

Living with celiac disease makes eating into a near-constant exercise in risk management. My friends have seen me subject wait staff to the Celiac Inquisition many times: Was anything else fried in the same oil used for the French fries? Did they use the pasta water for regular pasta before they used it for the gluten free pasta? Do the spice mixes have wheat in them? Does that marinade use soy sauce –which, unfortunately, also usually includes wheat? Did they put the gluten free bread in the same toaster oven used for regular bread? Even though I ordered the gluten…

Are you paying enough attention to the risks on people’s minds? Are they priced in to the market or are there opportunities? If you lead an organization or make policies, have you protected yourself and your constituents from being sideswiped? Many “Top Risks” and “Predictions” lists are formulated to convince you of the strength of their analysis of what may be coming down the road. Others come from surveys of specific groups to find out their interests and worries. This fourth annual Top Gray Rhinos list is closer to the latter, though much broader in scope. It is a meta-analysis…

When was the first time you heard the expression “subprime housing market”? Betcha it wasn’t until it fell apart. Say, around 2008. That’s why I want to talk today about something way too many people may not otherwise hear about until after it goes bad: leveraged loans. Here’s a quick primer: these are floating-rate loans made to sub-investment-grade companies (that is, firms with debt that is high compared to their assets) and packaged into a variety of loans of varying yields and risk levels, as well as equity stakes, which both yield the most and involve the most risk. The…

My social media feeds have been full of tributes to the victims of Sunday’s Ethiopian Air Flight 302 crash, which killed 157 people. Many of those who died worked for the United Nations, World Food Program, and other international development and policy groups, among which I have many friends and friends-of-friends. I’m relieved not to see many virtue-signaling “why are people upset about a tragedy in X but not Y part of the world” posts. It is, of course, human nature to respond more powerfully to a tragedy to which we have personal connections. Biases in human nature also shape…

Welcome back to Around My Mind after a brief hiatus courtesy of the 2019 cold and flu season! The one with the bad cough. You know what I’m talking about, as do way too many of my friends, not to mention millions and millions of other people around the world. In case you’re wondering: Yes, I did get the flu shot last fall. And it’s sparked some thoughts about vaccines: ground zero for the decisions we make about taking risks and precautions –and all of the biases and mental tricks that go into those choices. There are two kinds of…