Author: Michele Wucker

Over the past year, more than half of UK consumers reported using less plastic in a phenomenon dubbed the “Attenborough effect” after Sir Richard Attenborough’s initiatives to raise awareness of plastic pollution. During Lent, my Facebook feed was full of posts by friends giving up single-use plastic –which brought a barrage of ads for multiple-use produce bags and beeswax wrappers. The attention to plastic waste has been followed, sadly and predictably, with a barrage of news coverage disparaging people’s efforts to reduce it. These articles mimic others suggesting it’s pointless to take small steps to reduce greenhouse gas emissions –…

Back from a week across the pond for a speech applying gray rhino theory to climate change at a risk conference in Brussels organized by the Flemish government, I’ve been considering whether we are at a tipping point that can speed progress in pulling our planet back from the brink. The number and intensity of warnings seems to be increasing, in the form of high-profile reports and an increase in protests from both student and general citizen protests. After Brussels, I spent a few days in the UK, where the Extinction Rebellion “XR” protests not only snarled London traffic but ultimately succeeded…

Living with celiac disease makes eating into a near-constant exercise in risk management. My friends have seen me subject wait staff to the Celiac Inquisition many times: Was anything else fried in the same oil used for the French fries? Did they use the pasta water for regular pasta before they used it for the gluten free pasta? Do the spice mixes have wheat in them? Does that marinade use soy sauce –which, unfortunately, also usually includes wheat? Did they put the gluten free bread in the same toaster oven used for regular bread? Even though I ordered the gluten…

Are you paying enough attention to the risks on people’s minds? Are they priced in to the market or are there opportunities? If you lead an organization or make policies, have you protected yourself and your constituents from being sideswiped? Many “Top Risks” and “Predictions” lists are formulated to convince you of the strength of their analysis of what may be coming down the road. Others come from surveys of specific groups to find out their interests and worries. This fourth annual Top Gray Rhinos list is closer to the latter, though much broader in scope. It is a meta-analysis…

When was the first time you heard the expression “subprime housing market”? Betcha it wasn’t until it fell apart. Say, around 2008. That’s why I want to talk today about something way too many people may not otherwise hear about until after it goes bad: leveraged loans. Here’s a quick primer: these are floating-rate loans made to sub-investment-grade companies (that is, firms with debt that is high compared to their assets) and packaged into a variety of loans of varying yields and risk levels, as well as equity stakes, which both yield the most and involve the most risk. The…

My social media feeds have been full of tributes to the victims of Sunday’s Ethiopian Air Flight 302 crash, which killed 157 people. Many of those who died worked for the United Nations, World Food Program, and other international development and policy groups, among which I have many friends and friends-of-friends. I’m relieved not to see many virtue-signaling “why are people upset about a tragedy in X but not Y part of the world” posts. It is, of course, human nature to respond more powerfully to a tragedy to which we have personal connections. Biases in human nature also shape…

Welcome back to Around My Mind after a brief hiatus courtesy of the 2019 cold and flu season! The one with the bad cough. You know what I’m talking about, as do way too many of my friends, not to mention millions and millions of other people around the world. In case you’re wondering: Yes, I did get the flu shot last fall. And it’s sparked some thoughts about vaccines: ground zero for the decisions we make about taking risks and precautions –and all of the biases and mental tricks that go into those choices. There are two kinds of…

Lately a lot of my time has involved interviewing people from many professions and walks of life about how they see risk. One big theme keeps coming up: that staying in your comfort zone is the biggest risk you can take. Several people have said almost the exact same thing, though each has used slightly different words. So when I read the reviews of Forever, the new Amazon Prime series which Wired has called “awesome,” The New York Times deemed to be “thrilling,” as other publications echoed similar sentiments, I was intrigued. Of course, it didn’t hurt that the show…

It’s that time again –the barrage of top-risks lists and forecasts for the coming year. When the air has cleared in a few weeks, I’ll issue my fourth annual “top gray rhino risk” meta-analysis: sorting through dozens of lists and identifying trends among them. (Here’s my 2018 wrap-up with links to past lists.) But this week, I want to focus on a few of my favorites and the worries that they detail. You may have caught the news Monday that China’s President Xi Jinping warned senior Communist Party officials to stay alert for gray rhino risks, among which he mentioned debt-laden “zombie firms,”…

China must be on guard against highly improbable, unimaginable “black swan” events while also fending off highly probable but often neglected “gray rhino” risks, Chinese President Xi Jinping told senior Communist Party officials at the opening ceremony of a study session at the Party School of the CPC Central Committee January 21st. Xi spoke shortly after newly released economic data showed that in 2018 China’s economy had slowed to the lowest rate in 28 years. “In the face of a turbulent international situation, a complex and sensitive environment, and the arduous task of reform … We must be highly vigilant…