Author: Michele Wucker

Coverage of the coronavirus outbreak in China includes maddening references to the outbreak as a “black swan” –that is, a high-impact event that is utterly unforeseeable and unmanageable. Pishposh. Once you can imagine something, by definition it is no longer a black swan. If you can’t imagine that something has happened before cannot happen again, you are the proverbial ostrich with your head stuck deep in the sand. Coronavirus demonstrates how dangerous it is to rely on the myth of the black swan metaphor, which unfortunately more often gets used as a cop-out than for its intended use: as a…

A recent welcome rainstorm in Australia provided firefighters a brief respite in their months-long battle against raging wildfires. Amid record high temperatures and one of the worst droughts in memory, the fires have burned 18 million acres, affected more than half a billion animals, killed millions of those animals and at least 28 people, destroyed 3,000 homes in New South Wales alone, worsened air quality in Sydney to 11 times the hazardous level, and disrupted millions of human lives. A convergence of news this week feels a bit like that rainstorm, providing some hope even though it will be a long time until climate change…

The annual onslaught of outlooks, predictions, and top-risks lists is upon us along with the beginning of a new year. As I begin the process of sorting through them and compiling my annual “Top Gray Rhinos” meta-list of the things that collectively keep CEOs, policy makers, and top analysts up at night, I’m reflecting on the nature of predictions themselves. Why do we make predictions? Looking at potential scenarios is, of course, an important planning tool. The exercise provides a chance to evaluate possible courses of action while we’re level headed and not under stress. Decisions we make when we’re…

The annual onslaught of outlooks, predictions, and top-risks lists is upon us along with the beginning of a new year. As I begin the process of sorting through them and compiling my annual “Top Gray Rhinos” meta-list of the things that collectively keep CEOs, policy makers, and top analysts up at night, I’m reflecting on the nature of predictions themselves. Why do we make predictions? Looking at potential scenarios is, of course, an important planning tool. The exercise provides a chance to evaluate possible courses of action while we’re level headed and not under stress. Decisions we make when we’re…

The earliest Top Risks, predictions, and outlook lists for 2020 are out already. For the fifth year in a row, I am tracking these lists. At the end of the first quarter, when they’ve reached critical mass, I’ll analyze them to create a meta-list of the most-often and most-intensely cited risks: the obvious risks charging at us like a giant gray rhino. These are the ones that nobody can honestly say nobody saw coming: many respected analysts recognized them and raised the red flag. Not just despite but sometimes because of their obviousness, humans aren’t nearly as good as we’d…

Michele Wucker chatted recently with Lyric Hughes Hale for Econvue’s fantastic new podcast series (and got a bonus peek at Econvue’s amazing library). Follow the link to listen: https://econvue.com/pulse/hale-podcast-episode-7-interview-michelle-wucker

You know where they say the path littered with good intentions leads: No place you want to go. That’s what appears to have happened with California’s new law, AB5, which was passed to force companies to re-classify gig economy workers as employees. Though it was aimed mainly at rideshare companies like Uber and Lyft, the law also has snared media companies. Vox Media just announced that to comply with the law, it will fire hundreds of freelance writers and editors. About twenty of them stand good chances of being re-hired as part time or full time staff employees with benefits like…

You may have seen those Facebook rumors about white vans “spreading fear,” as CNN and other media reported a series of viral social media posts about men in white vans supposedly kidnapping women and selling them for sex and body parts. The mayor of Baltimore even issued a warning, despite there having been no confirmed incidents. The hoax is a classic example of how easy it is to rev up fears. It’s also an opportunity to help people learn to recognize blatant misinformation, take a pause, and get better at defeating fake news. White vans are an easy target: just…

Have you been hearing huge sighs of relief lately? To understand why, look to the U.S. yield curve –that is, the graph of United States Treasury securities by maturity and yield that investors watch carefully as an oracle for predicting recession—which supposedly has returned to “normal.” (Finance types: Skip this paragraph. Non-finance types: Maturity is the length of time until the principal, or amount borrowed, is due. Yield is how much investors are compensated for holding them, calculated as a bond’s interest rate –the “coupon”– divided by its price. Depending on how much the bond costs, then, the yield can be higher or lower…

Boards are paying more attention to risky business outside the office, Gray Rhino & Company CEO Michele Wucker writes in her strategy+business column November 21 “Why your CEO’s personal risk taking matters.” The recent ousters of prominent CEOs over personal missteps, whether over a questionable relationship or reckless behavior, are drawing newfound attention to a connection that boards have long overlooked: the link between social risk-seeking behaviors and the risk decisions CEOs make on the job. Obviously, companies don’t like reputational risk. But that’s not the only reason to be wary of CEOs with messy personal lives. Such lives may predict bad risk…