Author: Michele Wucker

Michele Wucker wrote, “No, the coronavirus pandemic wasn’t an ‘unforeseen problem’” in The Washington Post March 17, 2020. “An obsession with the “unforeseeable” black swan metaphor has promoted a mentality that led us straight into the mess we’re in now: a sense of helplessness in the face of daunting threats and a sucker’s mentality that encourages people to keep throwing good money after bad,” she wrote. “And the facile willingness to see crises as black swans has provided policymakers cover for failing to act in the face of clear and present dangers from climate change to health care to economic…

This is a strange year for my fifth annual round-up of the things that keep the world’s risk observers up at night. Why? Because the big thing on everyone’s mind right now did not make it on to most lists. That thing is, of course, the novel coronavirus outbreak and its outsized impact on the global economy. Most top-risks-of-the-coming-year lists are designed to attract headlines at a time of year when news is often slow because the world is on holiday or just emerging from it. So most were issued before COVID-19 really took hold. There were some relevant references…

As infections accelerate in South Korea, Italy, and Iran, policy makers are wondering if the COVID-19 virus is escalating into a pandemic and market participants fear that it could hit the global economy hard enough to knock it into a recession. Traditionally, a pandemic is an infectious disease epidemic that crosses borders. Paradoxically, the World Health Organization, which is charged with coordinating international efforts to stop pandemics, has stopped using the word. Officially, COVID-19 is a Public Health Emergency of International Concern, or PHEIC (which, appropriately, sounds like a sound someone who has it might make). The number of confirmed COVID-19…

Viral disinformation is making it harder for public health workers to deal with the very real challenges of fighting the COVID-19 virus. Wiktionary defines an infodemic as “An excessive amount of information concerning a problem such that the solution is made more difficult.” The last edit was made nearly a year ago, February 28, 2019, showing that COVID-19 was not the source of the term, even though it is a perfect example. Infodemics more and more will complicate real crises.  The World Health Organization, the United Nations’ health organization, has been waging war on the infodemic front as well as against COVID-19. It met recently with major tech companies about stemming…

China and the world are mourning Dr. Li Wenliang, one of the doctors who attempted to spread an early warning of the Wuhan coronavirus and were reprimanded and detained by local officials in early January. Dr Li, who was only thirty-four years old, died of the virus in the wee hours Friday morning. Upon hearing of Dr. Li’s death, Wuhan residents gathered at Wuhan Central Hospital to honor him with flowers, photos and heartfelt sentiments. China’s chief epidemiologist has praised the whistleblower doctors. China’s highest court also recognized that the doctors were trying to prevent a bigger crisis, and reprimanded local officials who tried to…

Coverage of the coronavirus outbreak in China includes maddening references to the outbreak as a “black swan” –that is, a high-impact event that is utterly unforeseeable and unmanageable. Pishposh. Once you can imagine something, by definition it is no longer a black swan. If you can’t imagine that something has happened before cannot happen again, you are the proverbial ostrich with your head stuck deep in the sand. Coronavirus demonstrates how dangerous it is to rely on the myth of the black swan metaphor, which unfortunately more often gets used as a cop-out than for its intended use: as a…

A recent welcome rainstorm in Australia provided firefighters a brief respite in their months-long battle against raging wildfires. Amid record high temperatures and one of the worst droughts in memory, the fires have burned 18 million acres, affected more than half a billion animals, killed millions of those animals and at least 28 people, destroyed 3,000 homes in New South Wales alone, worsened air quality in Sydney to 11 times the hazardous level, and disrupted millions of human lives. A convergence of news this week feels a bit like that rainstorm, providing some hope even though it will be a long time until climate change…

The annual onslaught of outlooks, predictions, and top-risks lists is upon us along with the beginning of a new year. As I begin the process of sorting through them and compiling my annual “Top Gray Rhinos” meta-list of the things that collectively keep CEOs, policy makers, and top analysts up at night, I’m reflecting on the nature of predictions themselves. Why do we make predictions? Looking at potential scenarios is, of course, an important planning tool. The exercise provides a chance to evaluate possible courses of action while we’re level headed and not under stress. Decisions we make when we’re…

The annual onslaught of outlooks, predictions, and top-risks lists is upon us along with the beginning of a new year. As I begin the process of sorting through them and compiling my annual “Top Gray Rhinos” meta-list of the things that collectively keep CEOs, policy makers, and top analysts up at night, I’m reflecting on the nature of predictions themselves. Why do we make predictions? Looking at potential scenarios is, of course, an important planning tool. The exercise provides a chance to evaluate possible courses of action while we’re level headed and not under stress. Decisions we make when we’re…

The earliest Top Risks, predictions, and outlook lists for 2020 are out already. For the fifth year in a row, I am tracking these lists. At the end of the first quarter, when they’ve reached critical mass, I’ll analyze them to create a meta-list of the most-often and most-intensely cited risks: the obvious risks charging at us like a giant gray rhino. These are the ones that nobody can honestly say nobody saw coming: many respected analysts recognized them and raised the red flag. Not just despite but sometimes because of their obviousness, humans aren’t nearly as good as we’d…