Author: Michele Wucker

Viral disinformation is making it harder for public health workers to deal with the very real challenges of fighting the COVID-19 virus. Wiktionary defines an infodemic as “An excessive amount of information concerning a problem such that the solution is made more difficult.” The last edit was made nearly a year ago, February 28, 2019, showing that COVID-19 was not the source of the term, even though it is a perfect example. Infodemics more and more will complicate real crises.  The World Health Organization, the United Nations’ health organization, has been waging war on the infodemic front as well as against COVID-19. It met recently with major tech companies about stemming…

China and the world are mourning Dr. Li Wenliang, one of the doctors who attempted to spread an early warning of the Wuhan coronavirus and were reprimanded and detained by local officials in early January. Dr Li, who was only thirty-four years old, died of the virus in the wee hours Friday morning. Upon hearing of Dr. Li’s death, Wuhan residents gathered at Wuhan Central Hospital to honor him with flowers, photos and heartfelt sentiments. China’s chief epidemiologist has praised the whistleblower doctors. China’s highest court also recognized that the doctors were trying to prevent a bigger crisis, and reprimanded local officials who tried to…

Coverage of the coronavirus outbreak in China includes maddening references to the outbreak as a “black swan” –that is, a high-impact event that is utterly unforeseeable and unmanageable. Pishposh. Once you can imagine something, by definition it is no longer a black swan. If you can’t imagine that something has happened before cannot happen again, you are the proverbial ostrich with your head stuck deep in the sand. Coronavirus demonstrates how dangerous it is to rely on the myth of the black swan metaphor, which unfortunately more often gets used as a cop-out than for its intended use: as a…

A recent welcome rainstorm in Australia provided firefighters a brief respite in their months-long battle against raging wildfires. Amid record high temperatures and one of the worst droughts in memory, the fires have burned 18 million acres, affected more than half a billion animals, killed millions of those animals and at least 28 people, destroyed 3,000 homes in New South Wales alone, worsened air quality in Sydney to 11 times the hazardous level, and disrupted millions of human lives. A convergence of news this week feels a bit like that rainstorm, providing some hope even though it will be a long time until climate change…

The annual onslaught of outlooks, predictions, and top-risks lists is upon us along with the beginning of a new year. As I begin the process of sorting through them and compiling my annual “Top Gray Rhinos” meta-list of the things that collectively keep CEOs, policy makers, and top analysts up at night, I’m reflecting on the nature of predictions themselves. Why do we make predictions? Looking at potential scenarios is, of course, an important planning tool. The exercise provides a chance to evaluate possible courses of action while we’re level headed and not under stress. Decisions we make when we’re…

The annual onslaught of outlooks, predictions, and top-risks lists is upon us along with the beginning of a new year. As I begin the process of sorting through them and compiling my annual “Top Gray Rhinos” meta-list of the things that collectively keep CEOs, policy makers, and top analysts up at night, I’m reflecting on the nature of predictions themselves. Why do we make predictions? Looking at potential scenarios is, of course, an important planning tool. The exercise provides a chance to evaluate possible courses of action while we’re level headed and not under stress. Decisions we make when we’re…

The earliest Top Risks, predictions, and outlook lists for 2020 are out already. For the fifth year in a row, I am tracking these lists. At the end of the first quarter, when they’ve reached critical mass, I’ll analyze them to create a meta-list of the most-often and most-intensely cited risks: the obvious risks charging at us like a giant gray rhino. These are the ones that nobody can honestly say nobody saw coming: many respected analysts recognized them and raised the red flag. Not just despite but sometimes because of their obviousness, humans aren’t nearly as good as we’d…

Michele Wucker chatted recently with Lyric Hughes Hale for Econvue’s fantastic new podcast series (and got a bonus peek at Econvue’s amazing library). Follow the link to listen: https://econvue.com/pulse/hale-podcast-episode-7-interview-michelle-wucker

You know where they say the path littered with good intentions leads: No place you want to go. That’s what appears to have happened with California’s new law, AB5, which was passed to force companies to re-classify gig economy workers as employees. Though it was aimed mainly at rideshare companies like Uber and Lyft, the law also has snared media companies. Vox Media just announced that to comply with the law, it will fire hundreds of freelance writers and editors. About twenty of them stand good chances of being re-hired as part time or full time staff employees with benefits like…

You may have seen those Facebook rumors about white vans “spreading fear,” as CNN and other media reported a series of viral social media posts about men in white vans supposedly kidnapping women and selling them for sex and body parts. The mayor of Baltimore even issued a warning, despite there having been no confirmed incidents. The hoax is a classic example of how easy it is to rev up fears. It’s also an opportunity to help people learn to recognize blatant misinformation, take a pause, and get better at defeating fake news. White vans are an easy target: just…